Will Trump’s Tariffs Lead to a Run on Toilet Paper in the U.S.?

As was recently reported in the Globe & mail, the U.S. imports some 10% of its’ toilet paper largely from Canada and Mexico even with U.S. manufacturers operating at full capacity. Additionally, Canadian softwood provides a significant portion of the inputs that go into U.S. manufactured toilet paper. Mr. Dino Bianco, CEO of Kruger Products Inc., estimates that U.S. producers could see a 6 to 8 percent increase in costs due to tariffs which are expected to eventually be passed on to U.S. consumers. “If you have a supply disruption or unavailability because of tariffs in the U.S., you’ll have empty shelves and it will be front-page news because it will have a direct, immediate impact on the consumer,” Mr. Bianco said. “We’ve been trying to help governments understand this is a very constrained supply chain. I’m not trying to panic people. The market works very efficiently, but the market is so tight that there’s no room to absorb a hiccup of any kind. It would be felt immediately, and there’s no buffer. There’s no running a third shift to make it up.” As the memory of toilet paper shortages during the pandemic is still fresh in the minds of U.S. consumers (and voters), toilet paper may prove to be an effective tool in fighting Trump’s trade war.